Accuracy of Monsoon Forecast by Private Agency
Accuracy of Monsoon Forecast by Private Agency
Government is aware that a private agency has predicted seasonal rainfall of 102% of Long Period Average (LPA) for the 2015 southwest monsoon, whereas Earth System Science Organisation–India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has predicted monsoon 2015 seasonal rainfall of 88% of LPA ±4% model error. The cumulative rainfall received so far (1st June to 7th August 2015) is 93% of LPA. As about two more months are left for the present (2015) monsoon season (June to September) to complete, it will be early to say which forecast is accurate.
ESSO-IMD stands by its seasonal Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon 2015 issued in June 2015, which was 88% of LPA ±4% model error.
The cumulative rainfall situation for the period 1st June to 7th August, 2015 is 93%. The actual rainfall in July was 84% of LPA which is well within the forecast range issued by ESSO-IMD model and far off the target of the forecast issued by private agency. The rainfall during 2nd half for the country as a whole is likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%. The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
Government is closely and continuously monitoring the rainfall situation over the country. ESSO-IMD is issuing weather forecast/outlook with a lead period of 5 to 20 days. Gramin Krishi Seva Scheme (GKMS) is rendered on twice -weekly basis in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), institutions of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) etc. Further, crop specific advisories, generated in partnership with SAUs and ICAR, to help the farmers are issued and widely disseminated for planning possible contingency actions.
The GKMS of Earth System Science Organization -India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district/agro -climatic zone level twice weekly through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based wider dissemination media including short message service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response Service (IVRS) facilitating for appropriate field level actions.
Weekly rainfall forecast scenario followed by 15-day outlook is issued on every Thursday during the months of June-September for planning appropriate actions.
The Crop Weather Watch Group of MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE coordinates with ESSO-IMD, Central Water Commission, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutions and the State Governments to review on a weekly basis (on every Friday) the weather forecast scenario as it impacts on agriculture, level in Water Reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC), Progress of Sowing, Crop health including incidence of Pest Attacks and availability of inputs etc. The steps suggested under this process are available at www.agricoop. nic.in/weather.html.
ESSO-IMD stands by its seasonal Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon 2015 issued in June 2015, which was 88% of LPA ±4% model error.
The cumulative rainfall situation for the period 1st June to 7th August, 2015 is 93%. The actual rainfall in July was 84% of LPA which is well within the forecast range issued by ESSO-IMD model and far off the target of the forecast issued by private agency. The rainfall during 2nd half for the country as a whole is likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%. The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
Government is closely and continuously monitoring the rainfall situation over the country. ESSO-IMD is issuing weather forecast/outlook with a lead period of 5 to 20 days. Gramin Krishi Seva Scheme (GKMS) is rendered on twice -weekly basis in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), institutions of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) etc. Further, crop specific advisories, generated in partnership with SAUs and ICAR, to help the farmers are issued and widely disseminated for planning possible contingency actions.
The GKMS of Earth System Science Organization -India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district/agro -climatic zone level twice weekly through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based wider dissemination media including short message service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response Service (IVRS) facilitating for appropriate field level actions.
Weekly rainfall forecast scenario followed by 15-day outlook is issued on every Thursday during the months of June-September for planning appropriate actions.
The Crop Weather Watch Group of MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE coordinates with ESSO-IMD, Central Water Commission, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutions and the State Governments to review on a weekly basis (on every Friday) the weather forecast scenario as it impacts on agriculture, level in Water Reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC), Progress of Sowing, Crop health including incidence of Pest Attacks and availability of inputs etc. The steps suggested under this process are available at www.agricoop. nic.in/weather.html.
*****
Weather Forecast Services
The Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) of Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district level twice weekly through different media like print/visual/Radio/ IT based including short message service (SMS) and Integrated Voice Response System (IVRS) for a wider dissemination. At present, the GKMS products are disseminated through SMS and IVRS to 11.46 million farmers in the country.
Stating this in reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, the Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Science Dr. Harsh Vardhan said ESSO-IMD is not providing forecast and advisory services at the Block Level at present. However research efforts are initiated by ESSO –IMD to explore possibility of generating sub district scale Agro-meteorological forecast with acceptable level of verification skill in a pilot mode.
For the benefit of fisherman community, a satellite-based application for the fishermen community of the country, called "Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories", is being generated and provided on using the satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools since 1999 useful for location of fish grounds/aggregation . In addition, the Ocean State Forecast (OSF) (wave height and direction, wind speed and direction, ocean currents, sea surface temperature, depth of mixed layer and thermo cline, sea level at major and minor ports, etc. is also being provided to fisherman. Dr. Harsh Vardhan pointed out that the Indian Institute of Applied Economics had assessed that such services to farmers contribute upto about Two lakh crores Rupees and services extended for the benefit of fishermen amount to over 34,000 crore rupees.
ESSO-IMD, in coordination with State Governments, is also generating forecasts for major pilgrimages such as Amarnath Yatra, Manasasarovar Yatra, Chardham Yatra, Kumbhmela, etc. and also various mountaineering expeditions launched by the Armed Forces for Mount Everest and several other Himalayan mountains. Continuous efforts are on to generate value added forecast products at different spatial scales (State, District, City etc.) and temporal scales (from few hours to 5 days) for all the regions of the country. The tourist city forecasts and their updates in particular are made available through designated state government level functionaries, electronic & print media and for general public on ESSO-IMD’s national as well as regional office websites.
ESSO-IMD has operationalized its location specific now-casting weather service across the country. This service activity currently covers 155 urban centres under which now- cast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6h range is issued. Origin, development/movement of severe weather phenomena are regularly monitored through DWRs and with all available other observing systems (AWSs; ARGs; Automatic Weather Observing Systems-AWOS; satellite derived wind vectors, temperature, moisture fields etc.)
Stating this in reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, the Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Science Dr. Harsh Vardhan said ESSO-IMD is not providing forecast and advisory services at the Block Level at present. However research efforts are initiated by ESSO –IMD to explore possibility of generating sub district scale Agro-meteorological forecast with acceptable level of verification skill in a pilot mode.
For the benefit of fisherman community, a satellite-based application for the fishermen community of the country, called "Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories", is being generated and provided on using the satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools since 1999 useful for location of fish grounds/aggregation . In addition, the Ocean State Forecast (OSF) (wave height and direction, wind speed and direction, ocean currents, sea surface temperature, depth of mixed layer and thermo cline, sea level at major and minor ports, etc. is also being provided to fisherman. Dr. Harsh Vardhan pointed out that the Indian Institute of Applied Economics had assessed that such services to farmers contribute upto about Two lakh crores Rupees and services extended for the benefit of fishermen amount to over 34,000 crore rupees.
ESSO-IMD, in coordination with State Governments, is also generating forecasts for major pilgrimages such as Amarnath Yatra, Manasasarovar Yatra, Chardham Yatra, Kumbhmela, etc. and also various mountaineering expeditions launched by the Armed Forces for Mount Everest and several other Himalayan mountains. Continuous efforts are on to generate value added forecast products at different spatial scales (State, District, City etc.) and temporal scales (from few hours to 5 days) for all the regions of the country. The tourist city forecasts and their updates in particular are made available through designated state government level functionaries, electronic & print media and for general public on ESSO-IMD’s national as well as regional office websites.
ESSO-IMD has operationalized its location specific now-casting weather service across the country. This service activity currently covers 155 urban centres under which now- cast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6h range is issued. Origin, development/movement of severe weather phenomena are regularly monitored through DWRs and with all available other observing systems (AWSs; ARGs; Automatic Weather Observing Systems-AWOS; satellite derived wind vectors, temperature, moisture fields etc.)
**********
Government Making Consistent Efforts to Tackle Air Pollution
The Government has been making consistent efforts to address the issue of air pollution in Delhi and National Capital Region (NCR). The Minister of State (Independent Charge) of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Shri Prakash Javadekar, has adopted a consultative and cooperative approach to tackle the air pollution in and around Delhi. The Minister has taken three review meetings with the Environment Ministers of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and with the concerned senior officers of municipal bodies and police from these States. The first meeting was held on April 6, 2015 at Vigyan Bhawan, while the second meeting was held on April 13, 2015 at Paryavaran Bhawan. The third meeting was held on July 24, 2015 at Parliament House.
The pro-active approach adopted by the Ministry got a positive response from the States. It translated into the setting up of short-term prevention measures like stopping and burning of bio-wastes, initiating work for major up-gradation of Pollution Under Control (PUC) system, issuing challans of over-loaded goods vehicles, enhancing of parking slots availability, installation of waste to energy plants and strict monitoring of polluting industries.
At the meeting held on July 24, it was decided that all the States concerned will come out with an annual plan of initiatives to prevent air pollution and also come out with a long-term plan. As pollution cannot be tackled only through government efforts, the Centre will soon launch a massive people-oriented awareness campaign to check air pollution.
The pro-active approach adopted by the Ministry got a positive response from the States. It translated into the setting up of short-term prevention measures like stopping and burning of bio-wastes, initiating work for major up-gradation of Pollution Under Control (PUC) system, issuing challans of over-loaded goods vehicles, enhancing of parking slots availability, installation of waste to energy plants and strict monitoring of polluting industries.
At the meeting held on July 24, it was decided that all the States concerned will come out with an annual plan of initiatives to prevent air pollution and also come out with a long-term plan. As pollution cannot be tackled only through government efforts, the Centre will soon launch a massive people-oriented awareness campaign to check air pollution.
Post a Comment