Monsoon forecasts

IMD will issue the updated monsoon forecast by the first week of June 2016 based on the operational model and with the updated data upto May 2016.

Climatologically monsoon is expected to reach South Kerala by 31^st May. The forecast for the 2016 monsoon onset date will be issued on 15th May, 2016.

Monsoon onset over Kerala follows the monsoon advancement over the Andaman Sea that climatologically falls around 20^th May. So as to account for the Monsoon advancement over Andaman Sea, the monsoon onset forecast over Kerala is issued around middle of May annually.

Although, Potsdam institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany has claimed a novel method to forecast monsoon onset over the Eastern Ghats (North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Southern Odisha) and monsoon withdrawal from North Pakistan only, the methodology adopted has some limitations and uncertainty. At the same time, the respective withdrawal predictions have shown reduced skill during recent 2010-2014 period. As the methodology has not been tested for monsoon onset over the South Kerala, no tangible gain is expected for our operational onset monsoon forecast.

However, IMD issues the monsoon onset forecast based on an indigenously developed model. The forecasts for monsoon onset for last 10 years have been found correct.

The monsoon forecast during last three years was as under;

Year	Forecast		Actual (% of LPA)
Year	Issued in April	Issued in June	Actual (% of LPA)
2013	98 % of LPA ± 5	98 % of LPA ± 4	106
2014	95 % of LPA ± 5	93 % of LPA ± 4	88
2015	93% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%	88% of LPA ±4%	86

The forecast for monsoon during 2014 & 2015 were correct. However during 2013, the monsoon forecast issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) was marginally under estimated. It may be mentioned here that both 2014 & 2015 were deficient monsoon years.

This was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha today.

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Creation of landslide compendium

Landslides are a common geomorphic hazards in the states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. In all these three Himalayan states landslides are generally triggered by heavy rainfall almost every year and also often by major earthquakes in this active Himalayan Fold-Thrust-Belt.

Available landslide susceptibility and inventory maps along important pilgrimage routes,

road-corridors, river basins and site-specific large scale (1:2000 or larger) landslide maps have already revealed that within these Himalayan states, many parts of mountainous tracts and locations are highly vulnerable and susceptible to landslides.

The highly unstable zones studied by Geological Survey of India (GSI) in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir are given in Annexure-I.

GSI has launched a two-year project to create a landslide compendium for north western Himalayas. The project started on 1 April, 2014. The details of project outcome are given below.

· The compendium includes all major landslide studies carried out by GSI till 2013 in the NW Himalayas in the States of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir.

· The type of information included in the compendium are (i) Landslide Susceptibility Maps on scale 1:50,000 covering parts of river basins such as Ramganga, Ganga, Yamuna, Bhagirathi, Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Chenab river basin etc;

· (ii) Landslide Susceptibility Maps on scale 1:50,000/25,000/10,000 covering major towns such as Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Joshimath, Vaishno Devi, Ranikhet, Shimla etc;

· (iii) Landslide Susceptibility Maps on scale 1:50,000 covering important pilgrimage road corridors such as Yamunotri yatra route, Gangotri yatra route, Kedarnath-Badrinath yatra route, Kailash-Mansarovar yatra route, Harkidun road, Narkanda-Rampur-Khab Road, Kangra-Dharmshala-Sihunta-Dalhousie Road, Kalka-Shimla Narrow Gauge Railway Route, Arakot-Rohru-Narkanda-Theog-Chail-Solan Road etc;

· (iv) site specific landslide investigations including detailed geological maps;

· (v) post disaster reconnoitary geological assessment of major landslide events including the recent 2013 Uttarakhand Disaster; and

· (vi) inventory of major landslides in a tabular form.

In August 2013 GSI has created a Geohazards Research & Management (GHRM) Cell in Kolkata.

The project for creation of a landslide compendium for north western Himalayas is taken up by GHRM Cell in collaboration with GSI, Northern Region. The details are as given below:

· The GHRM Cell has been created following the recommendation of the 1^st meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for Landslide Mitigation and Management in India, chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Mines.

· GHRM Cell is primarily involved in Research & Development activities in the field of landslides and provides services to all landslide divisions of GSI for landslide related works, including mentoring the National Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (NLSM) programme of GSI.

· With an aim to collate the plethora of landslide data available in GSI repository and to publish them for public use, the GHRM Cell has taken the work of preparation of landslide compendium of NW Himalayas.

Annexure-I

Unstable zones studied by GSI in Uttarakhand

Unstable zones
1	Okhimath Tehsil, Rudraprayag-Kedarnath road, district Chamoli	10
2	Okhimath Tehsil, Haridwar-Badrinath road, and Rudraprayag-Kedarnath road, district Chamoli.	35
3	Haridwar-Badrinath road, district Chamoli	14
4	Karnapryag-Gwaldam road, district Chamoli	4
5	Haridwar-Badrinath-Mana road, district	2
6	Reni village, Ganai village, Joshimath-Marlari road, district Chamoli	4
7	Tharali village, district Chamoli	1
8	Karmi village, district Almora	2
9	Jalikhan-Jiakhan road district Almora	1
10	Bareilly-Almora road district Almora	2
11	Nainital: Sher ka Danda Hill, Naina Peak, Balia nala and Jangali village	3
12	Barielly-Kathgodam road, district Nainital	5
13	Almora-Pithoragarh road, district Almora	4
14	Kinwani Slide, Distt, Pauri Garhwal	1
15	Bhagirathi Valley, district Uttarkashi	181
16	Bhagirathi Valley, district Uttarkashi	54
17	Kannauldiya gad, district Uttarkashi	3
18	Haridwar-Badrinath road, district Chamoli	4
19	Rudraprayag-Kedarnath road, district Chamoli	1
20	Haridwar-Badrinath road and Rudraprayag-Kedarnath road, district Chamoli	2
21	Durlokh village, district Pithoragarh	1
22	Pithoragarh-Almora road, district Almora	1
23	Dharchula-Tawaghat road, Tawaghat village, district Pithoragarh	8
24	Kedarnath township	1

Unstable zones studied by GSI in Himachal Pradesh

Unstable zones
1	Satluj river valley, district Kinnaur	87
2	Naina Devi Temple area, district Bilaspur	1
3	Bilaspur-Kiratpur road, district Bilaspur	1
4	Simla town, district Simla	3
5	Kulu and Mandi districts	19
6	Satluj river valley, district Kulu	4
7	Satluj river valley, Simla and Kulu districts	30
8	Kulu and Kinnaur districts	20
9	Baira dam site, districts Chamba	2
10	Beas valley, district Kangra	175
11	Dalhousie town, district Chamba	2
12	Near Sonwara Rly. St., Kalka-Simla Rail route, district Solan	1
13	Near Kandon, district Sirmur	1

Unstable zones studied by GSI in Jammu & Kashmir

1	Landslide at village Tak, Batote, District Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir.
2	Landslide at village Channgabra, Batote, District Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir.
3	Landslide at village Rakh Jhrog along PMGSY road, Batote, District Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir.
4	Landslides on Road Karu-Tangtse, District Leh, Jammu and Kashmir.
5	Landslides on Shyok-Agham Road, District Leh, Jammu and Kashmir.
6	Landslides on Rema-Rewari Road, District Leh, Jammu and Kashmir.
7	Landslide along Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine Board track (near Devidwar, Ardhkwari), District Reasi, Jammu and Kashmir.
8	Landslide at village Sadal, District Udhampur, Jammu and Kashmir.
9	Landslide at village Sheindera, District Poonch, Jammu and Kashmir.
10	Landslide at village Upper Potha, District Poonch, Jammu and Kashmir.
11	Landslide at village Chela and Dangri, District Poonch, Jammu and Kashmir.
12	Landslide at Kheri on National Highway, District Udhampur, Jammu and Kashmir.
13	Landslide at Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Bhawan, Katra, District Reasi, Jammu and Kashmir.
14	Landslide at Tringula, Batote on national highway, District Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir.
15	Landslide at village Dharam, Gool, District Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir.

This was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha today.

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