First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15
First Revised Estimates of National Income,
Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15
Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15
This
Press Release is embargoed against publication, telecast or circulation on
internet till 5.30 pm today i.e. 29th January, 2016.
The Central Statistics Office
(CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the
First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and
Capital Formation for the financial year 2014-15 (with Base Year 2011-12) as
per the revised policy. Second Revised Estimates of the years 2011-12 to
2013-14 (with Base Year 2011-12) have also been released as per the calendar of
revision of base year.
2. The First Revised
Estimates for the year 2014-15 have been compiled using
industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of the
benchmark-indicator method used at the time of release of Provisional Estimates
on 29th May, 2015. The
estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2011-12 to 2013-14 have
also undergone revision due to use of latest available data on agricultural
production; industrial production especially those based on the provisional
results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI): 2013-14, final results of ASI:
2012-13 and revised results of ASI: 2011-12; government expenditure (replacing
Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2013-14) and also more
comprehensive data available from various source agencies and State
Directorates of Economics and Statistics.
3. The salient features
of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:
Gross
Domestic Product
4.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2014-15 is estimated as Rs.
124.88 lakh crore while that for the year 2013-14 is estimated as Rs. 112.73
lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against 13.3
per cent during 2013-14.
5.
Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14
stands at Rs.105.52 lakh crore and Rs. 98.39 lakh crore, respectively, showing
growth of 7.2 per cent during 2014-15, and 6.6 per cent during 2013-14.
Industry-wise
Analysis
6.
The changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in different sectors
of the economy at current and constant (2011-12) prices are presented in
Statements 4.1 and 4.2 respectively. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at
basic prices increased by 10.5 per cent during 2014-15, as against 12.7 per
cent during 2013-14. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12)
basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15, as against
growth of 6.3 per cent in 2013-14.
7.
The shares of different sectors of
economy in the overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2014-15 and corresponding annual
growth rates are mentioned below:
Sector
|
Percentage
share in GVA at current prices
|
Percentage
change in GVA at constant (2011-12) prices over the previous year
|
|||||
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
|
Primary
|
21.75
|
21.35
|
21.18
|
20.04
|
1.2
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
Secondary
|
29.28
|
28.63
|
27.96
|
27.36
|
4.0
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
Tertiary
|
48.97
|
50.02
|
50.86
|
52.60
|
8.1
|
7.8
|
10.3
|
All
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
5.4
|
6.3
|
7.1
|
|
Aggregate GVA (Rs. in lakh crore)
|
||||||
|
at current prices
|
at constant prices
|
|||||
Total
|
81.07
|
92.10
|
103.81
|
114.72
|
85.47
|
90.84
|
97.27
|
8.
The growth in real GVA at during 2014-15 has been higher than that in 2013-14
mainly due to higher growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ (10.8%), ‘electricity,
gas, water supply & other utility services’ (8.0%), ‘trade, repair, hotels
& restaurants’ (10.7 %), ‘financial services’ (7.9%), ‘public
administration and defence’ (9.8%), and ‘other services’ (11.4%), as may be
seen from Statement 4.2. At constant prices, in the primary sector (comprising
agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), ‘agriculture,
forestry & fishing’ has shown a decline of 0.2 per cent while ‘mining and
quarrying’ increased by 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against the growth of
4.2 and 3.0 per cent, respectively during the year 2013-14. The growth of
secondary sector (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply
& other utility services, and construction) is 5.4 per cent and that of
tertiary (services) sector is 10.3 per cent during 2014-15, as against a growth
of 5.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.
Net
National Income
9.
Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2014-15 stands
at Rs. 110.08 lakh crore as against Rs. 99.34 lakh crore in 2013-14, showing an
increase of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against an increase of 13.2 per
cent in the previous year.
Gross
National Disposable Income
10.
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as Rs.
127.46 lakh crore for the year 2014-15, while the estimate for the year 2013-14
stands at Rs. 115.29 lakh crore, showing a growth of 10.6 per cent as against
13.2 per cent in the year 2013-14.
Saving
11.
Gross Saving during 2014-15 is estimated as Rs. 41.17 lakh crore as against Rs.
37.25 lakh crore during 2013-14. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year
2014-15 is estimated as 32.3 per cent, the same as in 2013-14.
12.
The highest contributor to the Gross Saving is the household sector, with a
share of 57.8 per cent in the year 2014-15. However, the share has declined
from 63.4 per cent in 2013-14 to 57.8 in 2014-15. This decline can be
attributed to the decline in household savings in physical assets, which has
declined from Rs. 14.61 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs. 13.79 lakh crore in
2014-15. On the other hand, the share of Non-Financial Corporations has
increased from 32.7 per cent in 2013-14 to 37.2 per cent in 2014-15. The share
of Financial Corporations increased marginally from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14 to
8.2 per cent in 2014-15, while the dis-saving of General Government has
decreased from 4.0 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.2 per cent in 2014-15.
Capital
Formation
13.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by
two approaches – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net
capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by
the type of assets. The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are
treated as the firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches
is taken as “errors and omissions”. However, GCF by industry of use and by
institutional sectors does not include “valuables”, and therefore, these estimates are lower than the
estimates available from
commodity flow approach.
14.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs.42.76 lakh
crore for the year 2014-15 as compared to Rs. 39.12 lakh crore during 2013-14.
The rate of GCF to GDP declined from 34.7 per cent during 2013-14 to 34.2 per
cent in the year 2014-15. The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at
33.3 per cent and 32.7 per cent for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively.
The rate of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2014-15 has been higher
than the rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World
(ROW).
15.
In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest
contributor is Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising steadily from
45.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 52.0 per cent in 2014-15 (Statement 9). Share of
household sector in GCF is also significant, but has declined from 43.4 per
cent in 2011-12 to 33.9 per cent in 2014-15. The share of General Government in
GCF has increased from 9.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 12.9 per cent in 2014-15.
16.
Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital
Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs. 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs.
35.64 lakh crore in 2013-14. The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices
was 30.8 per cent in 2014-15 as compared to 31.6 per cent in 2013-14. The
change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, increased from Rs. 1.80
lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs. 2.21 lakh crore in 2014-15, while the valuables
increased from Rs. 1.63 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs. 1.93 lakh crore in 2014-15.
17.
The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has
decreased marginally from 36.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 35.9 per cent in 2014-15.
Consumption
Expenditure
18.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at
Rs. 71.93 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as against Rs. 65.08 lakh crore in
2013-14. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2013-14
and 2014-15 are estimated at 57.7 per cent and 57.6 per cent respectively.
19.
At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as Rs. 55.20 lakh crore and
Rs. 58.64 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15
respectively. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2013-14 and
2014-15 are 56.1 per cent and 55.6 per cent respectively.
20.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated
as Rs. 13.65 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as against Rs.11.53 lakh crore
during 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the
years 2013-14 and 2014-15 stand at Rs.9.77 lakh crore and Rs.11.03 lakh crore
respectively.
Estimates
at per capita level
21.
Per Capita Income, i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is
estimated as Rs.79,412 and Rs. 86,879 respectively for the years 2013-14 and
2014-15. Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the
years 2013-14 and 2014-15 is estimated at Rs. 52,022 and Rs.56,772 respectively.
22.
More details of these estimates are available in Statements 1-9 appended with
this Press Note.
Summary of
Revision in the GDP Estimates
23.
The use of latest available data from various agencies and company-wise
revalidation of the industry-wise and institution-wise (public/private)
classification of companies in the MCA21 database have resulted in some changes
in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for all the years. The reasons
for revision in the estimates of the years 2011-12 to 2013-14, released on
30.01.2015 and the Second Revised Estimates are mentioned in the Annexure.
Revision in the estimates of 2014-15:
24.
The following statement gives the major reasons for variation between the
Provisional Estimates (released in May 2015) and the First Revised Estimates of
GVA for 2014-15.
Sector
|
GVA
growth in 2014-15
|
Major
reasons for variation
|
|
Prov. Estimate, May 2015
|
First Revised Estimate,
Jan 2016
|
||
0.6
|
1.3
|
Revision in
estimates of production of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry
products; and use of annual financial reports of public & private sector
companies, in place of IIP in the case of ‘mining & quarrying’.
|
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
Actual
analysis of financial reports of a larger sample of public & private
sector companies instead of key financial indicators derived from advance
filings of a small sample of Companies used earlier.
|
|
10.2
|
10.3
|
Use of Revised Estimates of sales tax and other items in central
& state government budget documents instead of Budget Estimates; and
replacement of key financial indicators derived from advance filings of a
small sample of Companies with actual analysis of financial reports of a
larger sample of public & private sector companies.
|
|
Total
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
|
Upcoming
Releases
i. Advance Estimates for the year 2015-16, along with quarterly estimates
for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015-16 on February 8, 2016; and
ii. Provisional Estimates for the year 2015-16, along with estimates for all
the four quarters of the year on May 31, 2016.
*****************
1. List of
Statements
1. Statement 1.1: Key
aggregates of national accounts at current prices
2. Statement 1.2: Key
aggregates of national accounts at constant (2011-12) prices
3. Statement 2: Per Capita Income, Product and
Final Consumption
4. Statement 3.1: Output by economic activity and
Capital Formation by industry of use at current prices
5. Statement 3.2: Output by economic activity and
Capital Formation by industry of use at constant (2011-12) prices
6. Statement 4.1: Gross Value Added by economic
activity at current basic prices
7. Statement 4.2: Gross Value Added by economic
activity at constant (2011-12) basic prices
8. Statement 5: Finances for Gross Capital Formation
9. Statement 6.1: Gross Capital Formation by industry
of use at current prices
10. Statement 6.2: Gross Capital Formation by industry
of use at constant (2011-12) prices
11. Statement 7.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by
asset & institutional sector at current prices
12. Statement 7.2: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by
asset & institutional sector at constant (2011-12) prices
13. Statement 8.1: Private Final Consumption
Expenditure at Current Prices
14. Statement 8.2: Private Final Consumption
Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices
15. Statement 9: Institutional Sectors – Key
economic indicators at current prices
Annexure: Reasons for revision in the estimates of the years 2011-12 to 2013-14
NOTES ON THE STATEMENTS
ACRONYMS
USED IN THE PRESS RELEASE
CE:
Compensation of Employees
CFC:
Consumption of Fixed Capital
CIS:
Changes in Stock
GCF:
Gross Capital Formation
GDI:
Gross Disposable Income
GDP:
Gross Domestic Product
GFCE:
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
GFCF: Gross
Fixed Capital Formation
GNDI: Gross
National Disposable Income
GNI:
Gross National Income
GVA: Gross
Value Added
MI:
Mixed Income
NDP:
Net Domestic Product
NNDI:Net National Disposable Income
NNI: Net National Income
NNI: Net National Income
OS:
Operating Surplus
PFCE: Private
Final Consumption Expenditure
ROW: Rest of
the World
FORMULAE
1. GVA at basic prices = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production
taxes less Production subsidies
2. GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes - Product
subsidies
3. NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI - CFC
4. GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less
payments)
5. Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial
Income
6. NNDI =NNI + other current transfers from ROW, net
(Receipts less payments)
7. GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers from
ROW, net (Receipts less payments)
8. Gross Capital Formation= Gross Savings+ Net Capital
Inflow from ROW
9. GCF = GFCF + CIS + Valuables + “Errors and Omissions”
10. Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving
of General Government
11. Gross Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI –
GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations
REMARKS
ON THE FORMULAE:
1. Production
taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are
independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:
Production Taxes - Land Revenues, Stamps
and Registration fees and Tax on profession
Production Subsidies - Subsidies to
Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries
2. Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of
product. Some examples are:
Product Taxes: Excise Tax, Sales
tax, Service Tax and Import and Export duties
Product Subsidies: Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies
7. Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other
than the primary incomes
8. Estimate of GCF derived
from this formula is taken as the “firmer” estimate and the difference between
this estimate and the sum of GFCF, CIS and valuables is taken as “errors and
omissions”, as referred in 9 above.
Annexure
REASONS FOR REVISION IN THE ESTIMATES OF THE YEARS 2011-12 TO 2013-14
Revision
in major aggregates
The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current prices is
given in the following table:
Changes at the aggregate level
|
|
|
|
(Amount in Rs. lakh
crore)
|
||||||
S.No.
|
Item
(at current prices)
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
||||||
Old
|
New
|
%
change
|
Old
|
New
|
%
change
|
Old
|
New
|
%
change
|
||
1
|
GVA at basic prices
|
81.96
|
81.07
|
-1.1
|
92.52
|
92.10
|
-0.5
|
104.77
|
103.81
|
-0.9
|
2
|
GDP
|
88.32
|
87.36
|
-1.1
|
99.89
|
99.51
|
-0.4
|
113.45
|
112.73
|
-0.6
|
3
|
GNI
|
87.55
|
86.59
|
-1.1
|
98.72
|
98.35
|
-0.4
|
112.05
|
111.33
|
-0.6
|
4
|
NNI
|
78.47
|
77.42
|
-1.3
|
88.42
|
87.75
|
-0.8
|
100.57
|
99.34
|
-1.2
|
5
|
GNDI
|
90.60
|
89.64
|
-1.1
|
102.22
|
101.85
|
-0.4
|
116.01
|
115.29
|
-0.6
|
The reasons for revision
in GVA/GDP are as under:
Base Year 2011-12
· Revision in the results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), 2011-12
· Use of separate scaling factors for ‘Public Limited Companies’ and
‘Private Limited Companies’ in the MCA21 database, instead of a common scaling
factor used earlier. (This method applies to the subsequent years as well)
Year 2012-13
· Use of final results of ASI, 2012-13 in place of provisional results
· Use of updated information on local bodies and autonomous institutions
Year 2013-14
· Use of updated information on production & prices of agricultural
commodities
· Use of provisional results of ASI, 2013-14
· Replacement of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and
receipts in the central & state government budgets by ‘Actuals’
· Use of updated information on local bodies & autonomous institutions
· Use of updated MCA21 database received from the Ministry of Company
Affairs
Post a Comment