Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west-central Bay of Bengal

Red Alert issued for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & south Odisha coasts

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwards with a speed of about 14 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay cantered at 0830 hrs IST of today, over West central Bay of Bengal, about 320 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 270 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during next two hours.

It is very likely to move north-north westwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur & Kalingapatnam around morning of 11th October. Thereafter, it is very likely to re-curve north eastwards, move towards Gangetic West Bengal across Odisha and weaken gradually.

Red alert has been issued for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & south Odisha coasts. Union Minister for earth sciences Dr. Harsh Vardhan yesterday evening took an urgent review meeting and the situation is being monitored at the highest level.

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Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal:

Cyclone Warning for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts Red Message- based on 0830 hrs IST of 10th October 2018

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwards with a speed of about 14 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 10th October 2018 over Westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.5°N and longitude 85.8°E, about 320 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 270 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.

It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur & Kalingapatnam around morning of 11th October. Thereafter, it is very likely to re-curve northeastwards, move towards Gangetic West Bengal across Odisha and weaken gradually.

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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts. Red Alert Issued

Titli being monitored by the coastal Doppler Weather Radars at Visakhapatnam, Gopalpur and Paradip

A) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts: Red Message.

Yesterday’s cyclonic storm over west central Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved west-north-westwards, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the early morning and into a very severe cyclonic storm around noon of today, the 10th October, 2018.

The very severe cyclonic storm, Titli is being monitored by the coastal Doppler Weather Radars at Visakhapatnam, Gopalpur and Paradip. The latest observations indicate that the Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west central Bay of Bengal moved north-westwards with a speed of about 15 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay cantered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 10th October 2018 over West central Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.8°N and longitude 85.6°E, about 280 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 230 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to intensify further during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur & Kalingapatnam around morning of 11th October.

Thereafter, it is very likely to re-curve north-eastwards, move towards Gangetic West Bengal across Odisha and weaken gradually.

(B) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ over west central & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea:

Yesterday’s Cyclonic Storm “LUBAN” over west central & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea moved west-north-westwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the same evening. It further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over west central Arabian Sea and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST 10th October 2018 near latitude 14.2°N and longitude 58.9°E, about 600 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman), 560 km east-northeast of Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 760 km east-southeast of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify further and move west-north-westwards towards Yemen & South Oman Coasts during next 4 days.

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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west central Bay of Bengal;Red Alert issued.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over west central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for districts of north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts: Red Message.

Yesterday’s cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved west- northwestawrds, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the early morning and into a very severe cyclonic storm around noon of today, the 10th October, 2018.

The very severe cyclonic storm, Titli is being monitored by the coastal Doppler Weather Radars at Visakhapatnam, Gopalpur and Paradip. The latest observations indicate that the Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of about 15 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay cantered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 10th October 2018 over Westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.8°N and longitude 85.6°E, about 280 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 230 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to intensify further during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move north- northwestwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur & Kalingapatnam around morning of 11th October.

Thereafter, it is very likely to re-curve northeastwards, move towards Gangetic West Bengal across Odisha and weaken gradually.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. ⁰N/ long. ⁰E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
10.10.18/1130	16.8/85.6	130-140 gusting to 155	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.10.18/1730	17.4/85.3	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.10.18/2330	18.0/85.1	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/0530	18.6/84.9	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1130	19.3/84.8	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/2330	20.5/85.5	70-80 gusting to 90	Cyclonic Storm
12.10.18/1130	21.8/87.0	50-60 gusting to 70	Deep Depression
12.10.18/2330	23.1/88.7	40-50 gusting to 60	Depression

(ii)Wind warning

- - Gale wind speed reaching 130-140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph prevails over deep sea areas of westcentral & adjoining north Bay of Bengal and gradually increase to 140-150 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from today the 10^th evening to 11^th forenoon.
  - Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is very likely to commence along & off north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts from today afternoon.
  - It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph from today, the 10^th October 2018 night onwards along & off south Odisha & adjoining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts and 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph along & off north Odisha and remaining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts.
  - Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting 70 kmph is very likely to commence along & off West Bengal coast from today afternoon and gradually increase to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from today night onwards.

(iii) Sea condition

- - The sea condition is very high over westcentral Bay of Bengal around system centre. It is very likely to be phenomenal over westcentral & adjoining north Bay of Bengal and along & off south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts from tonight to 11^th October 2018 forenoon.

(iv) Storm Surge Warning

- - Storm surge of height of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is very likely inundate low lying areas of Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh; Ganjam, Khurda & Puri districts of Odisha at the time of landfall.

Damage Expected over districts of Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam of Andhra Pradesh, Gajapati, Ganjam, Khurda, Nayagarh and Puri districts of Odisha:
1. 1. Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
  2. Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting of large avenue trees.
  3. Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railway.
  4. Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees.

Action Suggested:
1. 1. Total suspension of fishing operations.
  2. The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral & north Bay of Bengal till 11^th October 2018. Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast immediately.
  3. Evacuation from coastal areas need to be mobilised. People advised to remain indoors.
  4. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic needed.

Post landfall Outlook:

After the landfall the very severe cyclonic storm, Titli is very likely to maintain the intensity of cyclone till evening of 11^th October 2018, while moving northeastwards across Odisha. As a result, the gale wind speed of 60-90 kmph is very likely to prevail over the interior districts adjacent to south coastal Odisha during 11^th morning to 11^th afternoon and wind speed of 60- 70 kmph over the interior districts adjacent to north coastal Odisha from 11^th noon to night.
It may lead to breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees, minor damage to power and communication lines, Damage to thatched huts, damage to standing crops.

(B)Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea:

Yesterday’s Cyclonic Storm “LUBAN” over west central & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the same evening. It further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over west central Arabian Sea and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST 10^th October 2018 near latitude 14.2°N and longitude 58.9°E, about 600 km east- southeast of Salalah (Oman), 560 km east-northeast of Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 760 km east- southeast of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify further and move west-northwestwards towards Yemen & South Oman Coasts during next 4 days.

Forecast track & intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. ⁰N/ long. ⁰E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
10.10.18/1130	14.2/58.9	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.10.18/1730	14.4/58.7	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.10.18/2330	14.5/58.3	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/0530	14.6/58.1	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1130	14.7/57.8	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/2330	14.9/57.1	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.10.18/1130	15.0/56.3	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.10.18/2330	15.1/55.4	140-150 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.10.18/1130	15.2/54.4	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.10.18/2330	15.2/52.9	120-130 gusting to 145	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

14.10.18/1130	15.2/51.1	110-120 gusting to 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
14.10.18/2330	15.0/48.3	90-100 gusting to 110	Severe Cyclonic Storm

Warnings:

1. Wind warning
Gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph is prevailing over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 135-145 kmph gusting to 160 kmph by 11^th October 2018 evening over westcentral Arabian Sea around the system centre. The wind speed is very likely to decrease gradually over southwest Arabian Sea from 11^th onwards.
1. Sea condition
The sea condition is phenomenal around the system centre. It is very likely continued to be phenomenal over westcentral Arabian Sea till 13^th October 2018 and over Gulf of Aden during 11^th to 13^th October.
1. Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of westcentral Arabian Sea & Gulf of Aden till 14^th October and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea till 11^th October.